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Decision making under uncertainty

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889194667 Year: Pages: 143 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-466-7 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Psychology --- Neurology --- Science (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2016-03-10 08:14:32
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Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.

Risk Factors for Pancreatic Cancer: Underlying Mechanisms and Potential Targets

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889194681 Year: Pages: 115 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-468-1 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Physiology --- Science (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2016-03-10 08:14:32
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Pancreatic Cancer has been and still is one of the deadliest types of human malignancies. The annual mortality rates almost equal incidence rates making this disease virtually universally fatal. The 5-year survival of patients with pancreatic cancer is a dismal 5% or less. Therapeutic strategies are extremely limited with gemcitabine extending the survival by a disappointing few weeks. The failure of several randomized clinical trials in the past decade investigating the therapeutic efficacy of different mono- and combination therapies reflects our limited knowledge of pancreatic cancer biology. In addition, biomarkers for early detection are sorely missing. Several pancreatic cancer risk factors have been identified. Unfortunately, the underlying mechanisms linking these risk factors to cancer development are poorly understood. Well known possible and probable risk factors for the development of pancreatic cancer are age, smoking, chronic pancreatitis, obesity, and type-2 diabetes mellitus. Age is certainly of the most important risk factors as most cases of pancreatic cancer occur in the elderly population. Smoking ten cigarettes a day increases the risk by 2.6 times and smoking a pack per day increases it by 5 folds. Chronic pancreatitis increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by up to 13 times. Patients with hereditary forms of chronic pancreatitis have an even higher risk. Obesity, a growing global health problem, increases the risk of pancreatic cancer by about 1.5 fold. Type-2 diabetes mellitus is also associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer by at least two-fold. The more recent the onset of diabetes, the stronger the correlation with pancreatic cancer is. In addition, heavy alcohol drinking, a family history of the disease, male gender and African American ethnicity are other risk factors for pancreatic cancer. Pancreatic cancer is characterized by several genetic alterations including mutations in the Kras proto-oncogene and mutations in the tumor suppressor genes p53 and p16. While Kras mutations are currently thought as early events present in a certain percentage of pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasias (PanINs), known precursor lesions of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas, mutations in tumor suppressor genes, e.g. p53, seem to accumulate later during progression. In addition, several intracellular signaling pathways are amplified or enhanced, including the MAPK/ERK and PI3K/AKT signaling modules. Overall, these genetic alterations lead to enhanced and sustained proliferation, resistance to cell death, invasive and metastatic potential, and angiogenesis, all hallmarks of cancers. The scope of this Research Topic is to collect data and knowledge of how risk factors increase the risk of initiation/progression of pancreatic cancer. Of particular interest are potential underlying molecular mechanisms. Understanding the molecular mechanisms and driving signaling pathways will ultimately allow the development of targeted interventions to disrupt the risk factor-induced cancer development. This Research Topic is interested in a broad range of risk factors, including genetic and environmental, and welcomes original papers, mini and full reviews, and hypothesis papers. Manuscripts that address the effect of combination of risk factors on pancreatic cancer development and progression are of great interest as well.

Managing the Complexity of Critical Infrastructures: A Modelling and Simulation Approach

Authors: --- --- ---
Book Series: Studies in Systems, Decision and Control ISSN: 2198-4182 ISBN: 9783319510422 9783319510439 Year: Volume: 90 Pages: 299 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-51043-9 Language: English
Publisher: Springer
Subject: Business and Management --- General and Civil Engineering --- Materials --- Pharmacy and materia medica --- Manufactures --- Computer Science --- Biotechnology
Added to DOAB on : 2017-03-14 12:45:46
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This book summarizes work being pursued in the context of the CIPRNet (Critical Infrastructure Preparedness and Resilience Research Network) research project, co-funded by the European Union under the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). The project is intended to provide concrete and on-going support to the Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) research communities, enhancing their preparedness for CI-related emergencies, while also providing expertise and technologies for other stakeholders to promote their understanding and mitigation of the consequences of CI disruptions, leading to enhanced resilience. The book collects the tutorial material developed by the authors for several courses on the modelling, simulation and analysis of CIs, representing extensive and integrated CIP expertise. It will help CI stakeholders, CI operators and civil protection authorities understand the complex system of CIs, and help them adapt to these changes and threats in order to be as prepared as possible for mitigating emergencies and crises affecting or arising from CIs.

Advancing Culture of Living with Landslides: Volume 1 ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015-2025

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Book Series: WLF: Workshop on World Landslide Forum ISBN: 9783319594699 Year: Volume: 1 Pages: 586 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-59469-9 Language: English
Publisher: Springer
Subject: General and Civil Engineering
Added to DOAB on : 2017-07-19 15:58:39
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This volume contains peer-reviewed papers from the Fourth World Landslide Forum organized by the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL), the Global Promotion Committee of the International Programme on Landslides (IPL), University of Ljubljana (UL) and Geological Survey of Slovenia in Ljubljana, Slovenia from May 29 to June 2, 2017. The complete collection of papers from the Forum is published in five full-color volumes.

SIDS Sudden infant and early childhood death

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ISBN: 9781925261677 9781925261677 Year: DOI: 10.20851/sids Language: English
Publisher: University of Adelaide Press
Subject: Medicine (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2018-06-29 11:01:01
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This volume covers aspects of sudden infant and early childhood death, ranging from issues with parental grief, to the most recent theories of brainstem neurotransmitters. It also deals with the changes that have occurred over time with the definitions of SIDS (sudden infant death syndrome), SUDI (sudden unexpected death in infancy) and SUDIC (sudden unexpected death in childhood). The text will be indispensable for SIDS researchers, SIDS organisations, paediatric pathologists, forensic pathologists, paediatricians and families, in addition to residents in training programs that involve paediatrics. It will also be of use to other physicians, lawyers and law enforcement officials who deal with these cases, and should be a useful addition to all medical examiner/forensic, paediatric and pathology departments, hospital and university libraries on a global scale. Given the marked changes that have occurred in the epidemiology and understanding of SIDS and sudden death in the very young over the past decade, a text such as this is very timely and is also urgently needed.&#xD;

Applications of Novel Analytical Methods in Epidemiology

Authors: --- ---
Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889456581 Year: Pages: 109 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88945-658-1 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Medicine (General) --- Animal Sciences
Added to DOAB on : 2019-01-23 14:53:43
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The repertoire of quantitative analytical techniques in disciplines such as ecology, decision science, and evolutionary biology has grown, in part enabled by the development and increased availability of computational resources. Integration of cutting-edge, quantitative tools into veterinary epidemiology that have been borrowed from such disciplines has offered opportunities to advance the study of disease dynamics in animal populations, to improve and guide decision-making related to disease prevention, control, or eradication. Furthermore, the need to explore new analytical methods for veterinary epidemiology has been driven by the increasing availability and complexity of animal disease data. The objective of this e-book is to contribute to current methods in epidemiology by 1) presenting and discussing novel analytical tools that help advance our understanding of epidemiology; and 2) demonstrating how inferences emerging from the application of novel analytical tools can be incorporated into decision-making related to animal health. The e-book constitutes a collection of articles that explore the applications of a variety of analytical methods such as machine learning, Bayesian risk assessment and an advanced form of social network analysis in the modern epidemiologic study of animal diseases.

Business and Security Sector Reform

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Book Series: SSR Papers ISBN: 9781911529408 Year: Pages: 49 DOI: 10.5334/bbx Language: English
Publisher: Ubiquity Press
Subject: Sociology --- Political Science
Added to DOAB on : 2019-03-05 11:21:04
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Challenges to security and human rights involving extractive and other industries are addressed in a framework known as business and human rights (BHR), which shares many challenges and goals with SSR. This paper describes the grounds where BHR and SSR coincide in principles, actors and activities and which synergies can be built on that base. Opportunities for bridging BHR and SSR are drawn from a systematic comparison of case studies on Guinea, Colombia and Papua New Guinea. BHR and SSR should ideally cohere instead of collide.&#xD;

Infection and Inflammation: Potential Triggers of Sudden Infant Deaths

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889450497 Year: Pages: 94 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88945-049-7 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Medicine (General) --- Allergy and Immunology
Added to DOAB on : 2018-02-27 16:16:44
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There is a growing body of evidence that infectious agents or their products contribute to events leading to unexpected infant deaths. This issue summarizes the current information on the interactions between genetic background of the infant, environmental and developmental risk factors, and the microbial flora of the infant that could trigger lethal responses to common infections.

Neuropsychopharmacology of Psychosis: Relation of Brain Signals, Cognition and Chemistry

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889193356 Year: Pages: 276 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-335-6 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Psychiatry --- Medicine (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2016-03-10 08:14:32
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Previous research over the past decades has identified diverse neurobiological underpinnings of psychosis. In particular, by combining a variety of different neuroimaging modalities, it has been shown that psychotic states and the actual transition phase from a clinical high-risk state to established psychosis is characterized by structural, functional and neurochemical changes across different brain regions.Further evidence revealed that maybe not only focal brain abnormalities are characteristic for psychosis but specifically also an abnormal functional integration among various brain areas. Some evidence also suggests that dysfunctional brain connectivity proceeds during the development of psychosis when subjects perform a cognitive task. Notably, altered brain connectivity during cognitive challenges was often found to be associated with psychopathological measures, suggesting a mechanistic relation between functional network integrity and the clinical expression of psychosis.Several works proposed that disordered brain connectivity in psychosis results from abnormal N-methyl- D -aspartate receptor (NMDAR)-dependent synaptic plasticity, which can be mediated by other neurotransmitter systems such as dopamine or serotonin. Specific chemically mediated changes in synaptic plasticity may contribute to abnormal functional integration among brain regions and in consequence to impaired learning performances and inferences. Model-based connectivity investigations on synaptic signalling demonstrated for example that manipulation of the NMDA or α-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazolepropionic acid (AMPA) receptor system altered synaptic plasticity in healthy volunteers, which was predictive for subjects’ cognitive performance and psychopathology. In patients with psychosis, the activity in the prefrontal cortex during the processing of prediction errors, a specific form of learning, which is conveyed via synaptic connections, was linked with individuals’ formation of delusions. These results fit well with many works suggesting that psychotic symptoms or also drug-induced psychosis-like experiences can be explained by disturbances within a hierarchically organized neuronal network, leading to maladaptive integrations of new incoming evidence and thereby to false formations of prediction errors and false beliefs.In this research topic, we like to cover the most recent neurobiological correlates for early stage psychosis and in particular for the prediction of psychosis by using different neurophysiological measures (e.g. structural and functional MRI, EEG, DTI or PET). Studies exploring effective connectivity or complex brain networks such as small-world properties with techniques like dynamic causal modelling, structural equation modelling, or graph theory analysis are highly appreciated. Very welcome are studies proving a link between clinical features such as psychopathology and cognition, brain signals, and chemistry (also in regard of antipsychotic treatments or substance-induced psychotic states). Moreover, environmental factors that may influence psychosis onset or its’ developmental processes will be brought together with a diversity of different research modalities. We also collect critical reviews, mini-reviews or theoretical reflections from leading international researcher and clinicians in this field. The purpose of our research topic is intended to provide a state-of-the-art cognitive perspective to consider developing psychosis, which might shed more lights into the pathophysiological and neurobiological mechanisms of psychosis.

Improving Bayesian Reasoning: What Works and Why?

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Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889197453 Year: Pages: 207 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-745-3 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Psychology --- Science (General)
Added to DOAB on : 2016-04-07 11:22:02
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We confess that the first part of our title is somewhat of a misnomer. Bayesian reasoning is a normative approach to probabilistic belief revision and, as such, it is in need of no improvement. Rather, it is the typical individual whose reasoning and judgments often fall short of the Bayesian ideal who is the focus of improvement. What have we learnt from over a half-century of research and theory on this topic that could explain why people are often non-Bayesian? Can Bayesian reasoning be facilitated, and if so why? These are the questions that motivate this Frontiers in Psychology Research Topic. Bayes' theorem, named after English statistician, philosopher, and Presbyterian minister, Thomas Bayes, offers a method for updating one’s prior probability of an hypothesis H on the basis of new data D such that P(H|D) = P(D|H)P(H)/P(D). The first wave of psychological research, pioneered by Ward Edwards, revealed that people were overly conservative in updating their posterior probabilities (i.e., P(D|H)). A second wave, spearheaded by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, showed that people often ignored prior probabilities or base rates, where the priors had a frequentist interpretation, and hence were not Bayesians at all. In the 1990s, a third wave of research spurred by Leda Cosmides and John Tooby and by Gerd Gigerenzer and Ulrich Hoffrage showed that people can reason more like a Bayesian if only the information provided takes the form of (non-relativized) natural frequencies. Although Kahneman and Tversky had already noted the advantages of frequency representations, it was the third wave scholars who pushed the prescriptive agenda, arguing that there are feasible and effective methods for improving belief revision. Most scholars now agree that natural frequency representations do facilitate Bayesian reasoning. However, they do not agree on why this is so. The original third wave scholars favor an evolutionary account that posits human brain adaptation to natural frequency processing. But almost as soon as this view was proposed, other scholars challenged it, arguing that such evolutionary assumptions were not needed. The dominant opposing view has been that the benefit of natural frequencies is mainly due to the fact that such representations make the nested set relations perfectly transparent. Thus, people can more easily see what information they need to focus on and how to simply combine it. This Research Topic aims to take stock of where we are at present. Are we in a proto-fourth wave? If so, does it offer a synthesis of recent theoretical disagreements? The second part of the title orients the reader to the two main subtopics: what works and why? In terms of the first subtopic, we seek contributions that advance understanding of how to improve people’s abilities to revise their beliefs and to integrate probabilistic information effectively. The second subtopic centers on explaining why methods that improve non-Bayesian reasoning work as well as they do. In addressing that issue, we welcome both critical analyses of existing theories as well as fresh perspectives. For both subtopics, we welcome the full range of manuscript types.

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