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Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370

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Book Series: SpringerBriefs in Electrical and Computer Engineering ISSN: 2191-8112 ISBN: 9789811003783 9789811003790 Year: Pages: 114 DOI: 10.1007/978-981-10-0379-0 Language: English
Publisher: Springer
Subject: Statistics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-02-03 18:08:34
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This book demonstrates how nonlinear/non-Gaussian Bayesian time series estimation methods were used to produce a probability distribution of potential MH370 flight paths. It provides details of how the probabilistic models of aircraft flight dynamics, satellite communication system measurements, environmental effects and radar data were constructed and calibrated. The probability distribution was used to define the search zone in the southern Indian Ocean.The book describes particle-filter based numerical calculation of the aircraft flight-path probability distribution and validates the method using data from several of the involved aircraft’s previous flights. Finally it is shown how the Reunion Island flaperon debris find affects the search probability distribution.

The Challenge of Chance: A Multidisciplinary Approach from Science and the Humanities

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Book Series: The Frontiers Collection ISSN: 1612-3018 ISBN: 9783319262987 9783319263007 Year: Pages: 276 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-26300-7 Language: English
Publisher: Springer
Subject: Statistics
Added to DOAB on : 2017-01-24 17:28:09
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This book presents a multidisciplinary perspective on chance, with contributions from distinguished researchers in the areas of biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, genetics, general history, law, linguistics, logic, mathematical physics, statistics, theology and philosophy. The individual chapters are bound together by a general introduction followed by an opening chapter that surveys 2500 years of linguistic, philosophical, and scientific reflections on chance, coincidence, fortune, randomness, luck and related concepts.A main conclusion that can be drawn is that, even after all this time, we still cannot be sure whether chance is a truly fundamental and irreducible phenomenon, in that certain events are simply uncaused and could have been otherwise, or whether it is always simply a reflection of our ignorance. Other challenges that emerge from this book include a better understanding of the contextuality and perspectival character of chance (including its scale-dependence), and the curious fact that, throughout history (including contemporary science), chance has been used both as an explanation and as a hallmark of the absence of explanation. As such, this book challenges the reader to think about chance in a new way and to come to grips with this endlessly fascinating phenomenon.

DNA, statistics and the law: a cross-disciplinary approach to forensic inference

Authors: --- ---
Book Series: Frontiers Research Topics ISSN: 16648714 ISBN: 9782889192502 Year: Pages: 39 DOI: 10.3389/978-2-88919-250-2 Language: English
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Subject: Science (General) --- Genetics
Added to DOAB on : 2015-11-16 15:44:59
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From ABO typing during the first half of the 20th century, to the use of enzymes and protein contained in blood serums and finally direct DNA typing, biology has been serving forensic purposes for many decades. Statistics, in turn, has been constantly underpinning the discussions of the probative value of results of biological analyses, in particular when defendants could not be considered as excluded as potential sources because of different genetic traits. The marriage between genetics and statistics has never been an easy one, though, as is illustrated by fierce arguments that peaked in the so-called "DNA wars" in some American courtrooms in the mid-1990s. This controversy has contributed to a lively production of research and publications on various interpretative topics, such as the collection of relevant data, foundations in population genetics as well as theoretical and practical considerations in probability and statistics. Both DNA profiling as a technique and the associated statistical considerations are now widely accepted as robust, but this does not yet guarantee or imply a neat transition to their application in court. Indeed, statistical principles applied to results of forensic DNA profiling analyses are a necessary, yet not a sufficient preliminary requirement for the contextually meaningful use of DNA in the law. Ultimately, the appropriate use of DNA in the forensic context relies on inference, i.e. reasoning reasonably in the face of uncertainty. This is all the more challenging that such thought processes need to be adopted by stakeholders from various backgrounds and holding diverse interests. Although several topics of the DNA controversy have been settled over time, some others are still debated (such as the question of how to deal with the probability of error), while yet others - purportedly settled topics - saw some recent revivals (e.g., the question of how to deal with database searches). In addition, new challenging topics have emerged over the last decade, such as the analysis and interpretation of traces containing only low quantities of DNA where artefacts of varying nature may affect results. Both technical and interpretative research involving statistics thus represent areas where ongoing research is necessary, and where scholars from the natural sciences and the law should collaborate. The articles in this Research Topic thus aim to investigate, from an interdisciplinary perspective, the current understanding of the strengths and limitations of DNA profiling results in legal applications. This Research Topic accepts contributions in all frontiers article type categories and places an emphasis on topics with a multidisciplinary perspective that explore (while not being limited to) statistical genetics for forensic scientists, case studies and reports, evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, communication of expert findings to laypersons, quantitative legal reasoning and fact-finding using probability.

Innovations in Derivatives Markets: Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

Authors: --- --- ---
Book Series: Springer Proceedings in Mathematics & Statistics ISSN: 2194-1009 ISBN: 9783319334455 9783319334462 Year: Volume: 165 Pages: 449 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-33446-2 Language: English
Publisher: Springer
Subject: Mechanical Engineering --- Therapeutics --- Biotechnology --- Business and Management --- Chemical Technology
Added to DOAB on : 2017-03-08 12:08:06
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This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in:• Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk.• Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling.• Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations.The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities.A panel discussion included in the book (featuring Damiano Brigo, Christian Fries, John Hull, and Daniel Sommer) on the foundations of modeling and pricing in the presence of counterparty credit risk provides intriguing insights on the debate.

Possibly imperfect ontologies for effective information retrieval

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ISBN: 9783866441903 Year: Pages: XIV, 272 p. DOI: 10.5445/KSP/1000007206 Language: ENGLISH
Publisher: KIT Scientific Publishing
Subject: Computer Science
Added to DOAB on : 2019-07-30 20:01:58
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Ontologies and semantic metadata can theoretically solve all problems of traditional full-text search engines. In practice, however, they are always imperfect. This work analyzed whether the negative effect of ontology imperfection is higher than the positive effect of exploiting the ontology features for IR. To answer this question, a complete ontology-based information retrieval system was implemented and thoroughly evaluated.

Elements of Causal Inference

Authors: --- ---
Book Series: Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning series ISBN: 9780262344296 9780262037310 Year: Pages: 288 Language: English
Publisher: The MIT Press
Subject: Computer Science
Added to DOAB on : 2019-01-17 11:41:31
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A concise and self-contained introduction to causal inference, increasingly important in data science and machine learning.The mathematization of causality is a relatively recent development, and has become increasingly important in data science and machine learning. This book offers a self-contained and concise introduction to causal models and how to learn them from data. After explaining the need for causal models and discussing some of the principles underlying causal inference, the book teaches readers how to use causal models: how to compute intervention distributions, how to infer causal models from observational and interventional data, and how causal ideas could be exploited for classical machine learning problems. All of these topics are discussed first in terms of two variables and then in the more general multivariate case. The bivariate case turns out to be a particularly hard problem for causal learning because there are no conditional independences as used by classical methods for solving multivariate cases. The authors consider analyzing statistical asymmetries between cause and effect to be highly instructive, and they report on their decade of intensive research into this problem. The book is accessible to readers with a background in machine learning or statistics, and can be used in graduate courses or as a reference for researchers. The text includes code snippets that can be copied and pasted, exercises, and an appendix with a summary of the most important technical concepts.

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